March 21, 2019

Forecast March 2019 (CEP 2019)

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over.

Press release
For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.
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Main data for the Dutch economy 2018 2019 2020
GDP growth back to normal 2.5 1.5 1.5
Unemployment remains low 3.8 3.8 4.0
Higher inflation in 2019, due to higher VAT and energy taxes 1.6 2.3 1.4
Policy and higher wages are stimulating purchasing power 0.3 1.6 1.3
Budget surplus 1.4 1.2 0.8
Government debt continues to decrease 52.4 49.1 47.1

Government spending will increase substantially, although less so than envisaged. Higher expenditures will contribute to the economic growth projected for 2019 and 2020. And yet, some planned increases in spending, particularly regarding defence and infrastructure, will not be realised, partly because of the tight labour market. This contributes to a larger budget surplus projected for both years.  

In addition to the newest economic figures, CPB also points to the benefits of   a stable budget policy in case of further economic decline. Lower educated people and those working in flexible employment relationships would be hit the hardest by such a decline. Structural reforms could limit the uncertainties for such vulnerable groups in society.  

Economic growth back to normal

Spokesmen

Dick Morks +31 6 51681611 Read more
Daniel van Vuuren Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
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Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
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These text boxes of the Central Economic Plan 2019 are in Dutch, there is no English translation

 
This document is in Dutch, there is no English translation.
March 21, 2019

Het ramen van beleidseffecten op de inkomensverdeling via de Gini-coëfficiënt

De berekeningswijze en duiding van de Gini-coëfficiënt roept nog vragen op. Dit achtergronddocument gaat daarom nader in op de raming en de duiding van beleidseffecten op de Gini-coëfficiënt. In hoofdstuk 2 staat de (technische) berekening van de Gini-coëfficiënt centraal en analyseren we de Gini-coëfficiënt in Nederland in vergelijking met die in andere landen en door de jaren heen. Hoofdstuk 3 gaat in op hoe het CPB berekeningen maakt van de Gini-coëfficiënt en hoe de resultaten geduid kunnen worden. Hoofdstuk 4 bevat ten slotte enkele algemene beleidsopties in het nieuwe tweeschijvenstelsel, de effecten hiervan op de Gini-coëfficiënt in Nederland en de uitruil tussen inkomensongelijkheid en werkgelegenheid.
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Achtergrond

Het CPB maakt sinds jaar en dag ramingen van de ontwikkeling van de koopkracht van huishoudens. De jaarlijkse Macro Economische Verkenning van het CPB geeft een algemeen beeld van hoe de koopkracht zich het komende jaar zal ontwikkelen, gegeven de verwachtingen voor lonen en prijzen, en het voorgenomen beleid.  In de doorrekeningen van verkiezingsprogramma’s en Regeerakkoorden kijkt het CPB ook verder vooruit en worden projecties gemaakt van de koopkrachtontwikkeling in de aankomende kabinetsperiode. 

Sinds een aantal jaar maakt het CPB ook berekeningen van beleidseffecten op de inkomensverdeling op de lange termijn. Soms is sprake van beleidsmaatregelen die een geleidelijke transitie vergen, waardoor niet alleen effecten optreden op de korte of middellange termijn, maar ook effecten na de middellange termijn. In de doorrekeningen van verkiezingsprogramma’s en het Regeerakkoord maakt het CPB daarom ook ramingen van de structurele effecten op de inkomensverdeling van huishoudens. Als indicator voor inkomensongelijkheid wordt de Gini-coëfficiënt gehanteerd. Voordeel van de Gini-coëfficiënt is dat de ongelijkheid van de inkomensverdeling van huishoudens samengevat wordt in één getal dat goed te interpreteren is. Effecten van beleid kunnen zo vertaald worden in een mutatie van de inkomensongelijkheid.

Contacts

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March 21, 2019

Forecast 21 March 2019 (CEP 2019), figures

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are projected to grow substantially less rapidly in 2019 and 2020, compared to previous years. International uncertainties, such as US trade policy, Brexit and the state of the Chinese economy, have a negative impact on the economy. The budget also is projected to contribute by less than initially planned. Despite the lower growth levels, unemployment will stay low, purchasing power will increase and government finance remains under control.

Economic growth in the Netherlands

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2017-2020, 21 March 2019

International items
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Relevant world trade volume goods and services (%) 5.0 2.8 1.8 2.5
Export price competitors (goods and services, non-commodities, %) 2.1 0.9 1.2 1.2
Crude oil price (dollar per barrel) 54.3 70.9 61.0 61.0
Exchange rate (dollar per euro) 1.13 1.18 1.14 1.14
Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6
GDP and demand (volume)
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %) 2.9 2.5 1.5 1.5
Consumption households (%) 1.9 2.5 1.3 1.5
Consumption general government (%) 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.3
Capital formation including changes in stock (%) 4.4 4.2 2.6 2.5
Exports of goods and services (%) 5.3 2.7 1.1 2.3
Imports of goods and services (%) 4.9 2.7 1.5 3.0

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Price gross domestic product (%) 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.4
Export price goods and services (non-energy, %) 1.9 0.8 1.1 1.1
Import price goods (%) 4.2 2.5 -0.4 1.0
Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp, %) 1.3 1.6 2.3 1.4
Compensation per hour private sector (%) 1.2 2.3 3.4 2.6
Contractual wages private sector (%) 1.6 2.0 2.7 2.3
Purchasing power, static, median, all households (%) 0.3 0.3 1.6 1.3
Labour market
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Labour force (%) 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.7
Active labour force (%) 2.1 2.3 1.4 0.5
Unemployment (in thousands of persons) 438 350 345 370
Unemployed rate (% of the labour force) 4.9 3.8 3.8 4.0
Employment (hours, %) 1.9 2.3 1.0 0.5
Other items
  2017 2018 2019 2020
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) 73.4 74.0 75.1 75.6
Labour productivity private sector (per hour, %) 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.2
Private savings (% of disposable household income) 2.9 2.3 2.6 2.9
Current-account balance (level in % GDP) 10.5 10.1 9.7 9.0
Public sector
  2017 2018 2019 2020
General government financial balance (% GDP) 1.2 1.4 1.2 0.8
Gross debt general government (% GDP) 57.0 52.4 49.1 47.1
Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP) 38.7 39.1 39.6 39.3
Gross government expenditure (% GDP) 43.0 42.4 42.5 43.0

Contacts

Daniel van Vuuren Read more
Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
Sander van Veldhuizen +31 6 11648608 Read more
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Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

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