March 13, 2013

Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2013

Dutch economic growth weak, due to lagging consumption levels

Press release
The contracting economy in the Netherlands in 2013 largely will be the result of lagging domestic consumption levels. The fragile growth projected for 2014 almost entirely will be due to the recovering world trade. These are some of the conclusions by CPB, in their Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2013, presented by CPB Director Coen Teulings.
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The download is an English translation of chapter 1 of the Dutch publication.

The CEP’s main data were published two weeks ago and have not changed since. CPB projects a budget deficit of 3.3% for 2013 and 3.4% for 2014. Despite a slight recovery later this year, GDP volume is projected to decline in 2013 by ½%. For 2014, an economic growth of 1% is projected. Unemployment in 2013 will increase by 90,000 people to a total of 560,000 and in 2014 to 575,000.

Private consumption levels are expected to decline in 2013 by 1½% due to lower wage and benefit incomes and lower house prices. Real house prices have declined by 23% since 2008, and even when lower incomes and house prices are taken into account, the growth in consumption has been lagging behind since 2009. One of the possible explanations for this fact is that, since 2008, Dutch consumer confidence has declined strongly. For 2014, consumption levels are projected to increase slightly (1/4%) because of a small improvement in disposable income.

Related:

Spokesmen

Edwin van de Haar Read more
Johannes Hers Read more

Read the accompanying press release.

The download is an English translation of chapter 1 of the complete Dutch publication.

Related

The 'Centraal Economisch Plan 2013', ISBN 978-90-1257-777-9 (only in Dutch),  can be ordered from March 23, 2013 at:

Sdu Service Centre Publishers (www.sdu.nl)
P.O. Box 20014
2500 EA The Hague
The Netherlands
Telephone : +31-70-3789880
Price: 35 euro

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March 13, 2013

Presentatie Centraal Economisch Plan 2013

The contracting economy in the Netherlands in 2013 largely will be the result of lagging domestic consumption levels. The fragile growth projected for 2014 almost entirely will be due to the recovering world trade. These are some of the conclusions by CPB, in their Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2013, presented by CPB Director Coen Teulings.

We are sorry, unfortunately there is no English translation of this page.

Contacts

Edwin van de Haar Read more
Coen Teulings Read more
March 13, 2013

Tekortreducerende maatregelen 2011-2017

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Contacts

Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more
March 13, 2013

CPBs short-term forecasts March 2013

The contracting economy in the Netherlands in 2013 largely will be the result of lagging domestic consumption levels. The fragile growth projected for 2014 almost entirely will be due to the recovering world trade. CPB publishes forecasts of the Dutch economy and the world economy, this time published in the Central Economic Plan 2013.

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014

International items
 2011201220132014
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

4.0

0.5

2 3/4

5

Import price goods (%)

4.9

2.6

-1 1/4

3/4

Export price competitors (%)

6.3

2.4

-1/2

3/4

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

111.3

111.7

109

109

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.39

1.29

1.31

1.31

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

2.9

1.9

2.0

2.3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2011201220132014
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.0

-0.9

-1/2

1

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

602.0

602.8

610

626

Private consumption (%)

-1.0

-1.5

-1 1/2

1/4

Public demand (%)

-0.6

-0.2

-1/4

1/2

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

10.2

-2.5

1/2

2 1/4

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

4.3

2.2

3 1/4

5

of which domestically
produced (%)

3.8

-0.3

2 1/2

3 3/4

re-exports (%)

4.7

4.5

4 1/4

6

Imports of goods (%)

4.1

3.4

2

4 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2011201220132014
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

1.4

0.6

-3/4

3/4

Price competitiveness (%)

0.9

1.9

1/2

1/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

2.3

2.5

2 3/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

2.5

2.8

2 3/4

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.2

1.1

1 1/2

1 1/2

Price of national
expenditure (%)

0.8

1.8

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.4

1.7

1 3/4

2

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

2.1

2.2

2 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

33500

33000

33000

33500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-2.5

-1 1/2

-3/4

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-1.0

-2.5

-1 1/4

3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2011201220132014
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16800

16845

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8879

8940

8970

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8380

8395

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

389

470

560

575

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

0.7

-0.2

-1/2

0

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

0.0

1.5

3/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

0.0

0.6

-1/4

1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.4

5.3

6 1/4

6 1/2

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.4

6.4

7 3/4

7 3/4

Market sector
 2011201220132014
Production (%)

1.4

-1.8

-1/2

1 1/4

Labour productivity (%)

1.0

-1.4

1/2

1 1/2

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

0.4

-0.4

-1

-1/4

Price gross value added (%)

0.3

1.7

0

1 1/4

Real labour costs (%)

1.8

0.5

2 1/4

1 1/2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

80.4

81 1/2

81 1/4

General government
 2011201220132014
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-4.5

-4.0

-3.3

-3.4

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

65.5

71.4

74.0

75.0

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.4

38.8

39.9

40.1

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Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014

This chart depicts the growth of the Dutch economy in the Netherlands from 2008 - 2014.

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Related publication

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Contacts

Johannes Hers Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

Contacts

Johannes Hers Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

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