December 19, 2018

Forecast December 2018

CPB: Economy doing well, but past its peak

Press release
For next year, a continued robust Dutch economic growth of 2.2% is projected. However, looking at growth percentages of 2.9% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, economic growth is past its peak and levelling off. The uncertainties that may have a negative economic impact remain substantial. Outside the Netherlands, this is related to developments around the trade conflict between the United States and China, the Brexit, the Italian budget, and the demonstrations in France. In the Netherlands itself, growth may be lower if currently planned government spending would not take place. These are the conclusions by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis is its December Projections, published today. CPB Director Laura van Geest: ‘Figures continue to be good. Labour participation and unemployment have returned to their pre-recession levels, but the outlook is becoming less rosy.’
Main image

Main data for the Dutch economy 2018 2019
Economic growth still considerable 2,6 2,2
Unemployment to its lowest level since 2001 3,9 3,6
Indirect taxes pushing up inflation 1,6 2,4
Purchasing power increasing 0,3 1,6
Budget surpluses at historically high levels 1,1 1,0
Government debt decreases further 52,4 48,9

Labour shortages will continue to increase, in 2019. Employment growth was strong in 2018, but will level off in 2019. After the sizeable decrease in unemployment to 3.9% in 2018, this will decrease to 3.6% in 2019. Labour shortages and higher inflation will cause rising increases in contract wages. Higher rents and increases in indirect taxes, in addition to wage cost increases, will contribute to the rising inflation. Next year will be the third consecutive year in which the government budget surplus will be at least 1.0% of GDP. However, in 2019, the budget balance, corrected for the economic circumstances, is projected to decline to a shortage of 0.2% of GDP. 

This forecast is published in CPB Policy Brief 'Decemberraming 2018' (only in Dutch).

Downloads

Dutch, Pdf, 906 KB
Dutch, Excel, 88 KB

Fan Charts December 2018

The figures present fan charts around the December 2018 point forecasts for GDP growth, HICP inflation, unemployment and general government financial balance.

The solid line represents data realizations (2013-2017) and the December 2018 point forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Around the central path the figures present a fan of confidence intervals:

  • 30% confidence interval from the 35th to 65th percentile, dark blue area
  • 60% confidence interval from the 20th to 80th percentile, dark blue + blue area
  • 90% confidence interval from the 5th to 95th percentile, dark blue + blue + light blue area

The probability is thus 30% that the outcome will fall in the dark blue area and the probability is 10% that the outcome will fall outside the fan. In other words, the fan is a graphical representation of the likelihood of the various outcomes. The solid line represents the most likely outcome and outcomes are more likely when they are closer to the solid line.
 

Downloads

Contacts

Foto Adam Elbourne
Adam Elbourne +31 6 27208196 Read more
December 19, 2018

Forecast December 2018, figures

For next year, a continued robust Dutch economic growth of 2.2% is projected. However, looking at growth percentages of 2.9% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018, economic growth is past its peak and levelling off. The uncertainties that may have a negative economic impact remain substantial. Outside the Netherlands, this is related to developments around the trade conflict between the United States and China, the Brexit, the Italian budget, and the demonstrations in France. In the Netherlands itself, growth may be lower if currently planned government spending would not take place.

Economic growth in the Netherlands

Downloads

Excel, 17.9 KB
Excel, 15 KB
Excel, 13.7 KB

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2016-2019, 19 December 2019

International items
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Relevant world trade volume goods and services (%) 3.7 5.0 3.2 3.5
Export price competitors (goods and services, non-commodities, %) -3.2 2.1 0.8 1.3
Crude oil price (dollar per barrel) 44.3 55.0 72.4 64.3
Exchange rate (dollar per euro) 1.11 1.13 1.18 1.14
Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6
GDP and demand (volume)
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %) 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.2
Consumption households (%) 1.1 1.9 2.7 1.9
Consumption general government (%) 1.3 1.1 1.2 3.4
Capital formation including changes in stock (%) -6.7 4.4 4.5 3.9
Exports of goods and services (%) 1.7 5.3 2.8 3.6
Imports of goods and services (%) -2.0 4.9 3.0 4.5

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Price gross domestic product (%) 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.3
Export price goods and services (non-energy, %) -1.4 1.9 0.8 1.2
Import price goods (%) -4.5 4.2 2.2 -0.1
Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (hicp, %) 0.1 1.3 1.6 2.4
Compensation per hour private sector (%) 0.7 1.2 2.7 3.5
Contractual wages private sector (%) 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.8
Purchasing power, static, median, all households (%) 2.6 0.3 0.3 1.6
Labour market
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Labour force (%) 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.2
Active labour force (%) 1.3 2.1 2.2 1.5
Unemployment (in thousands of persons) 538 438 350 335
Unemployed rate (% of the labour force) 6.0 4.9 3.9 3.6
Employment (hours, %) 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.5
Other items
  2016 2017 2018 2019
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) 73.6 73.4 73.9 74.7
Labour productivity private sector (per hour, %) 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.7
Private savings (% of disposable household income) 3.6 2.9 2.8 2.7
Current-account balance (level in % GDP) 8.1 10.5 10.1 9.7
Public sector
  2016 2017 2018 2019
General government financial balance (% GDP) 0.0 1.2 1.1 1.0
Gross debt general government (% GDP) 61.9 57.0 52.4 48.9
Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP) 38.4 38.7 38.7 39.2
Gross government expenditure (% GDP) 44.0 42.9 42.4 42.4

Contacts

Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
Sander van Veldhuizen +31 6 11648608 Read more
Foto Daniël van Vuuren
Daniël van Vuuren +31 6 52485859 Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

Contacts

Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
Sander van Veldhuizen +31 6 11648608 Read more
Foto Daniël van Vuuren
Daniël van Vuuren +31 6 52485859 Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more
Foto Suzanne van Gils
Suzanne van Gils +31 6 21560776 Read more
Foto Dick Morks
Dick Morks +31 6 51681611 Read more