March 17, 2020

Forecast 17 March 2020 (CEP 2020 complete)

The economic impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 is highly uncertain. March 26, CPB publishes new corona-scenarios (in Dutch).
Main image

Fan Charts March 2020

The figures present fan charts around the CEP 2020 point forecasts for GDP growth, HICP inflation, unemployment and general government financial balance.

The solid line represents data realizations (2015-2019) and the CEP 2020 point forecasts for 2020 and 2021. Around the central path the figures present a fan of confidence intervals:

  • 30% confidence interval from the 35th to 65th percentile, dark blue area
  • 60% confidence interval from the 20th to 80th percentile, dark blue + blue area
  • 90% confidence interval from the 5th to 95th percentile, dark blue + blue + light blue area

The probability is thus 30% that the outcome will fall in the dark blue area and the probability is 10% that the outcome will fall outside the fan. In other words, the fan is a graphical representation of the likelihood of the various outcomes. The solid line represents the most likely outcome and outcomes are more likely when they are closer to the solid line.

Downloads

Contacts

Foto Adam Elbourne
Adam Elbourne +31 6 11627514 Read more
March 17, 2020

Forecast March 2020 (CEP 2020 and MLT), figures

Impact of coronavirus on Dutch economy highly uncertain.

Economic growth in the Netherlands

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2018-2021, March 2020

International items
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Relevant world trade volume goods and services (%) 3.4 2.4 1.9 2.2
Export price competitors (goods and services, non-commodities, %) -0.6 2.1 1.2 1.2
Crude oil price (dollar per barrel) 70.9 64.3 62.4 58.4
Exchange rate (dollar per euro) 1.18 1.12 1.11 1.11
Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %) 0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.1
GDP and demand (volume)
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %) 2.6 1.7 1.4 1.6
Household consumption (%) 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.9
Government consumption (%) 1.6 1.2 2.5 2.6
Capital formation including changes in stock (%) 2.2 4.6 0.4 1.5
Exports of goods and services (%) 3.7 2.6 2.7 2.8
Imports of goods and services (%) 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Price gross domestic product (%) 2.2 3.0 1.8 1.8
Export price goods and services (non-energy, %) 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2
Import price goods (%) 2.7 -1.2 0.3 0.3
Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, %) 1.6 2.7 1.6 1.6
Compensation per hour private sector (%) 1.8 3.0 3.2 3.4
Wages as determined in collective labour agreements, private sector (%) 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.8
Purchasing power, static, median all households (%) 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.3
Labour market
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Labour force (%) 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.9
Active labour force (%) 2.3 2.0 1.3 0.8
Unemployment (in thousands of persons) 350 314 305 320
Unemployed rate (% of the labour force) 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.4
Employment (hours, %) 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.9
Other items
  2018 2019 2020 2021
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) 73.1 73.9 75.1 75.9
Labour productivity private sector (per hour, %) 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.9
Private savings (% of disposable household income) 2.8 2.8 3.6 4.0
Current-account balance (level in % GDP) 11.2 9.6 9.7 9.1
Public sector
  2018 2019 2020 2021
General government financial balance (% GDP) 1.5 1.7 1.1 0.1
Gross debt general government (% GDP) 52.4 48.8 46.3 45.2
Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP) 38.7 39.4 39.0 38.6
Gross government expenditure (% GDP) 42.5 42.1 42.4 42.9

Contacts

Foto Diederik Dicou
Diederik Dicou +31 6 22827239 Read more
Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
Sander van Veldhuizen +31 6 11648608 Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more

Contacts

Foto Diederik Dicou
Diederik Dicou +31 6 22827239 Read more
Foto Sander van Veldhuizen
Sander van Veldhuizen +31 6 11648608 Read more
Foto Wim Suyker
Wim Suyker +31 6 52485860 Read more