Publications

September 18, 2018

Forecast September 2018 (MEV 2019)

The Dutch economy continues to flourish, with growth figures of 2.8% this year and 2.6% in 2019.

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September 13, 2018

Are substitute services a barrier to controlling long-term care expenditures?

We show that this reform not only affected consumption of this care type, but also the consumption of three other types of long-term care that are financed through another public scheme.

September 3, 2018

The scope of the external return to higher education

This article examines whether the productivity spillovers from a large share of highly educated workers occur within regions, sectors and/or firms. To distinguish between these possibilities, I follow a two-stage procedure to estimate a Mincerian wage equation using matched employer-employee panel data on individual earnings and educational attainment.

July 6, 2018

Trade Wars: Economic impacts of US tariff increases and retaliations, an international perspective

"Effect trade conflict limited, escalation only has losers". This background document provides information on the economic consequences of the current trade dispute between the US and several countries that announced retaliatory packages or filed them already with the WTO.

July 2, 2018

Frontier firms and followers in the Netherlands: estimating productivity and identifying the frontier

This study shows that constructing a large dataset, which sufficiently covers all firm sizes, is a prerequisite for studying the divergence hypothesis. We merge datasets of individual firm and employee data in the years 20062015 for the Netherlands, resulting in a representative sample of corporations. We find no evidence of diverging productivity between firms on the national frontier and laggard firms.

June 19, 2018

Forecast June 2018

The positive economic development in the Netherlands is continuing. The slight setback during the first quarter is expected to be only temporary, although the period of peak economic growth is probably behind us....

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June 5, 2018

How do the Dutch Finance their Own House? – Descriptive Evidence from Administrative Data

We investigate the major financing components which are used to purchase a house in the Netherlands. This is important to shed more light on the effects of changing lending norms. We look at the full universe of housing transactions in the Netherlands by making use of administrative data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) for the period 2006-2014.

June 5, 2018

A Review on ESBies - The senior tranche of sovereign bond-backed securities

Safe assets, assets with low risk and high liquidity, are the cornerstone for modern financial systems. The biggest holders of safe assets are banks, which need to hold safe assets to meet capital and liquidity requirements. Safe assets also provide high-quality, liquid collateral for banks’ repo transactions. Besides, safe assets provide benchmarks for the price formation of other financial assets.

May 29, 2018

Towards an EMU banking union: three scenarios

This publication discusses the need for an EMU banking union and describes three possible transition scenarios. This is a translation of chapter 4 of the Dutch publication.

May 29, 2018

Capital position of banks in the EMU: an analysis of Banking Union scenarios

This CPB Background Document provides details of the simulations of shocks to the capital position of banks in the EMU that underpins the Financial Risk Report 2018 of the CPB. This involves investigating the potential impact of two legacy problems on the capital position of banks. These problems are the high amount of government debt, especially in Italy, and the high level of non-performing loans on banks’ balance sheets.