17 december 2013

Kortetermijnraming december 2013

Slight growth 2014 will not yet lead to additional consumption

Persbericht
A slow climb out of recession is projected for the Dutch economy, with a ½% growth next year. Recovery of the labour market will take a little longer, with unemployment projected to increase to 7½% in 2014. Inflation, with 1½%, will remain below the target level of the European Central Bank, while median purchasing power increases by 1%.
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Go straight to the data.

This according to the December projections published today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Compared to the last projections published in September changes are only small.

The slight growth in GDP (gross domestic product) of 0.1% in the third quarter of 2013 is expected to continue next year. Annual growth is projected to be ½% for 2014. This is particularly due to increases in exports and investments. Consumer spending next year will continue to decline further, mainly as an after-effect of the income reduction of 2013 and the decline in wealth of the past years. The average increase in contract wages in 2014 is expected to equal inflation. Purchasing power is projected to increase next year, due to a lowering of the tax rate of the first tax bracket, a drop in health insurance premiums and lower pension fund contributions for civil servants.

Labour market recovery is not on the cards yet. Unemployment in 2014 will continue to rise and, on average, will involve 7½% of the working population. There will be no turn around yet, as employment is projected to decline also in 2014, albeit at a slower pace than in 2013. The decline for next year is estimated at ½% in the market sector and 1½% in the public sector. At the same time, there will be an increase in the number of people who would like to enter the labour market, although this increase will be smaller than in 2013.

Inflation in 2014 will even out at 1½%. The main factors contributing to a rise in consumer prices are the relatively large rent increases and price increases of imported consumer goods and services. As in the rest of the eurozone, inflation in the Netherlands also will be lower than in 2013, partly because the October 2012 increase in VAT will no longer affect inflation.

The EMU balance will even out at 3.1% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2014. The deficit will be attenuated by sizeable spending cuts and burden increases that were decided on in the government agreements of both Rutte Cabinets, the Government Agreement 2013 (Spring Agreement), and the six-billion-euro package of measures of last autumn. The increase in the expenditure on health care is lower than projected earlier. This has enabled a reduction in health care premiums, but has little influence on the EMU balance.

Contactpersonen

Edwin van de Haar Lees verder
Albert van der Horst Lees verder
Johannes Hers Lees verder

Conclusies

Lees ook het bijbehorende persbericht.

Kerngegevenstabel 2011-2014, dec 2013

Internationale economie
 2011201220132014
Relevante wereldhandel (%)

4,0

0,7

1 1/2

3 3/4

Prijspeil goedereninvoer
(%)

5,1

2,7

-1 1/2

-3/4

Concurrentenprijs (%)

6,3

4,1

-1 1/2

-1/2

Olieprijs (Brent, $)

111,3

111,7

109

109

Eurokoers (dollars per
euro)

1,39

1,28

1,33

1,36

Lange rente (stand in %)

3,0

1,9

2,0

2,4

Volume bestedingen en buitenlandse handel
 2011201220132014
Bruto binnenlands product
(economische groei, %)

0,9

-1,2

-1

1/2

Bruto binnenlands product
(BBP, in miljarden euro's)

599,0

599,3

603

611

Consumptie huishoudens
(%)

-1,1

-1,6

-2

-3/4

Overheidsbestedingen (%)

-0,6

-0,8

-1 1/4

1/2

Bruto investeringen
bedrijvensector,
excl. woningen (%)
12,3

-2,9

-6 1/4

4

Uitvoer van goederen,
exclusief energie (%)

4,4

1,9

1/2

4

Uitvoer van in Nederland
geproduceerde goederen
(%)
3,8

0,7

-3/4

2 3/4

Wederuitvoer (%)

4,9

3,0

1 3/4

5 1/4

Invoer van goederen (%)

4,7

3,6

-3/4

3 1/2

Prijzen, lonen en koopkracht (toelichting/begrippen)
 2011201220132014
Prijspeil goederenuitvoer,
exclusief energie (%)

2,1

0,8

0

-1/2

Prijsconcurrentiepositie (%)

-0,2

2,4

-3 1/4

-1/4

Consumentenprijsindex
(CPI), alle huishoudens
2006=100

109,3

111,9

114 3/4

116 1/2

Inflatie (mutatie CPI),
alle huishoudens (%)

2,3

2,5

2 1/2

1 1/2

Afgeleide inflatie
(CPI), alle huishoudens (%)

2,2

2,1

1 1/4

1 1/4

Prijs bruto binnenlands
product (%)

1,1

1,3

1 3/4

3/4

Prijs nationale
bestedingen (%)

0,7

1,8

1 1/2

1

Contractloon
marktsector (%)

1,4

1,6

1 1/2

1 1/2

Loonvoet marktsector (%)

1,9

1,7

1 1/2

3

Bruto modaal inkomen
(in euro's)

33500

33000

32500

33500

Koopkracht, statisch,
mediaan,
alle huishoudens (%)

-1,0

-2,4

-1

1

Prijzen overheid (toelichting/begrippen)
 2011201220132014
Loonvoet sector overheid (%)

0,8

1,7

3/4

3/4

Prijs overheidsconsumptie
beloning werknemers (%)

0,5

1,5

3/4

1/2

Prijs overheidsconsumptie,
netto materieel (IMOC) (%)

1,5

2,5

1 3/4

1 3/4

Prijs intermediair verbruik (%)

1,7

2,5

1 1/2

1

Prijs bruto overheids-
investeringen (IBOI) (%)

1,0

1,2

1 1/4

1

Arbeidsmarkt (internationale definitie 'beroepsbevolking', tenzij anders vermeld)
 2011201220132014
Bevolking (x 1000 pers.)

16693

16754

16795

16840

Beroepsbevolking (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8746

8878

8950

8980

Werkzame beroepsbevolking
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8409

8345

8320

Werkloze beroepsbevolking
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

389

469

605

665

Werkzame personen (%)

0,7

-0,2

-1

-1/2

Beroepsbevolking
(15-74) (%)

0,0

1,5

3/4

1/4

Werkzame beroeps-
bevolking (15-74) (%)

0,0

0,6

-3/4

-1/4

Werkloze beroeps-
bevolking (% van bb)

4,4

5,3

6 3/4

7 1/2

Werkloze beroepsbevolking
volgens nationale
definitie (% van bb)

5,4

6,4

8 1/2

9

Marktsector (toelichting/begrippen)
 2011201220132014
Productie (%)

1,4

-1,9

-1 3/4

3/4

Arbeidsproductiviteit (%)

0,9

-1,7

-3/4

1 1/4

Werkgelegenheid in
arbeidsjaren (%)

0,5

-0,2

-1

-1/2

Prijs toegevoegde waarde
(%)

0,3

1,7

1 1/4

3/4

Reële arbeidskosten (%)

1,6

0,0

1/4

2 1/4

Arbeidsinkomensquote
(niveau in %)

79,0

80,5

81

82

Collectieve sector
 2011201220132014
EMU-saldo (in % BBP)

-4,3

-4,1

-3,1

-3,3

EMU-schuld (in % BBP)

65,7

71,3

74,6

75,6

Collectieve lasten (in % BBP)

38,6

39,0

39,6

40,6

Economische groei in Nederland, 2008-2014

Deze grafiek toont de groei van het Bruto Binnenlands Product in Nederland van 2008 t/m 2014

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Contactpersonen

Albert van der Horst Lees verder
Johannes Hers Lees verder